Uncertainty Quantification of the Structural Capacity of Pipelines Using Separation of Variables Methodology

Evaluation of pipeline infrastructure system resilience requires an understanding of pipeline risk of failure. Current methods for pipeline risk assessment are largely deterministic, and as such, do not explicitly represent the effect of uncertainties in the critical parameters. This limits the understanding of which parameters most significantly affect the accuracy and ability to quantify the confidence level of the produced outcomes. This paper presents a methodology to quantify the uncertainty on the risk assessment of structural systems. The methodology uses the separation of variables method, a systematic approach typically used in seismic fragility evaluation of nuclear facilities. The methodology is applied to two metal pipeline examples.

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